Opening Poker Hands Odds

One of hold'em's most crucial decisions is, do I see the flop or don't I see the flop? In this lesson we'll examine the importance starting hand selection and what factors you need to consider before deciding whether to hold'em or fold'em.

• Poker Starting Hands Odds Of Winning
• Poker Starting Hands Odds Calculator
• Opening Poker Hands Odds Genesis Open

There are 169 different two card starting hand combinations in hold'em poker. This number assumes, for the sake of argument, that is the same as , or any other suited combination. If you are not dealt a pair, then your starting hand will either be suited or unsuited, and either connected or unconnected (gapped). This means your starting hand will fall into one of the following five categories:

• Pairs – e.g. , ,
• Suited connectors – e.g. , ,
• Connecting cards – e.g. , ,
• Suited unconnected cards – e.g. , ,
• Unconnected cards – e.g. , ,

While your particular hand is never guaranteed to win or lose a round when you draw a 2 and 7 or a Queen and 3, you'll want to know your odds, and these tips might help you avoid letting bad poker hands ruin your game. Most of the following bad poker hands usually lose at about the same rate. If only two players are remaining in a Texas Hold'em Poker hand before the flop, the odds of one player winning can range from 5% up to 95%. We have listed the most important preflop match-up probabilities and poker odds below.

Unconnected cards might be one, two, three-gapped, or more. The bigger the gap, the less chance you have of hitting a straight. For example, if you hold 73, then you'd need a flop of 456 for the straight. But holding T8, you could flop a straight with 9JQ or 679.

The Best Starting Hands in Hold'em

Let's start by talking about the best starting hands, which are often referred to as ‘premium hands'. There is some disagreement amongst poker players as to which starting hands are the best, but few would dispute the value of the first of our three main groups, Aces and Kings.

Group 1: AA, KK

These two starting hands are the major players in hold'em. It's not often you'll get dealt Aces or Kings. In fact you get either Aces or Kings once in every 110 hands, so it's not nearly as often as we'd like. Aces are by far the best possible starting hand in hold'em, closely followed by Kings. However, you should be aware that even Aces or Kings can get cracked, and they don't play too well against multiple opponents. This means you should definitely be raising pre-flop to narrow the field. Extra caution is necessary when playing Kings, because if an Ace falls on the flop then you're losing to anyone who has a single Ace in their starting hand. While they are very strong hands which most players love to get, they are certainly not unbeatable.

Group 2: QQ, JJ, AKs

Queens and Jacks are great starting hands, and with either of these, you can usually be confident you have the best starting hand. Of course they are dominated by Aces and Kings, but they're a favourite against all other starting hands. While Queens and Jacks will occasionally run into a player holding either Aces or Kings, it doesn't happen too often. Play these cards strongly, and always look to raise with them.

Ace-King is known throughout the poker world as Big Slick, and when suited it's often called Super Slick. While it isn't a ‘made hand', unlike a pair, it offers great potential. It's only a big underdog to Aces and Kings, and even pairs like Queens and Jacks are only slight favourites. The beauty of AK (suited or unsuited), is that it dominates so many other hands like AQ, AJ, AT, and so on. These types of hands are the ones that players usually end up pushing all-in with late in a tournament.

Group 3: TT, AK, AQs, AJs, KQs

This next group of starting hands is also a strong bunch. You should definitely be looking to raise pre-flop with any of these hands too. We've already talked about the power of AK, but starting hands like AQs, and AJs, are also very strong and often run into weaker Ace-X combinations. Even though these are all strong starting hands, and most of the time you'll be winning pre-flop, you have to be careful – particularly a hand like KQs, which you can easily fold to a re-raise.

Suited Cards

You'll often hear novice players responding to questioning of why they played a particular starting hand with the line 'well, because they were suited'. Some suited cards are worth playing and it's certainly better to start with suited cards than unsuited cards. However, the odds of flopping a flush is 1 out of 118 hands (0.8%) with two suited cards, and you'll only make a flush after the river around 6.5% of the time. Don't fall into the trap of playing any two cards just because they happen to be suited – it doesn't make a big enough difference to make junk hands valuable.

Poker Starting Hands Odds Of Winning

Kicker Issues

The word ‘kicker' means the smaller of your two cards. Some players play a hand if it contains an Ace with any other card (such as an Ace with a 3 kicker), and this type of play ultimately cost players money and tournaments. For example, let's suppose a player calls with A6 and the flop comes A83. What does the player do? bet? call? raise? call a big raise? go all-in? What if the flop comes Q63? The player has middle pair – which is very hard to play. Hey, the flop could come A6X – the player has two pair, Aces and sixes but this happens only 1 out of 49 hands (2%). Until you learn when and how to play Ace junk (AX) go slow with it. One good thing about A junk and K junk, is that you do not need to play these hands to learn when they may be profitable. Let experience from other hands and study be your teacher.

Table Conditions

Hold'em starting hands can be a complex subject because every situation is different. If you were to ask a professional poker player, 'should I call, raise, or fold this hand pre-flop?' his response would almost certainly be 'it depends!' Here are some of the main reasons why it depends: How to win big money at blackjack.

The Number of Players

The value of certain starting hands is very dependent upon the number of players at the table. Certain starting hands are always going to be under threat against a table of nine or ten players, but the value of these same hands increases when there are fewer players. A starting hand like KJ might be vulnerable against a full table of players, but is considered a strong hand if there are just a few other players.

Position

Your position on the poker table will be a major factor in deciding which starting hands you should play. The later your position in the betting order, the better – because you get to decide what to do after most of your opponents have acted. We'll talk much more about the importance of position throughout our lessons on Pokerology, but as a first step please see our lesson on the value of position. Playing position can elude us at first because it is a part of poker that lends itself to be exploited through experience. However, you must quickly realize that your position at the table should heavily influence the choice of starting hands that you play. Until a player has a feel or grasp for positional play, just believe and follow some of the suggestions on the subject.

A Raised Pot

Whether or not a pot has been raised should be a very important factor in your decision to play a particular starting hand. Your selection of starting hands should change when the pot has been raised by a reasonable player. If there has been a raise and a re-raise before you're due to act, then you should only consider playing with a very strong hand. Of course this will also depend on the personality types of the other players and whether the game is very loose or passive.

Starting Hand Charts

When you first start playing poker it can be helpful to use a starting hand chart as a point of reference. We've created a couple of starting hand charts that can be used by beginners. Please click on the following links to view these charts (they will open in a new window):

Each of these charts loads as a PDF, meaning they be viewed on screen, bookmarked or better still, can be printed and studied offline.

Beginners can treat starting hand charts as the gospel, but once you know enough about the game to recognize appropriate opportunities, you can deviate because your adjustment may represent a more profitable play. Our starting hand charts are a guide, not a set of intractable rules. There is no such thing as a perfect starting hand chart, because every game is different and there are many variables at work. Game texture and table conditions can't be measured and included into a neat formula.

There are many factors that may encourage you to tighten or loosen your play from our guidelines. If you have a starting hand that's not listed on the chart, then there's a good reason – it should almost always be mucked. But as in all poker decisions the phrase, 'It depends' comes to mind. However, before you decide to deviate from our guidelines, have a reason for taking such an action.

Conclusion

Don't fall into the trap of playing any two cards. Most poker players want to play hands and as a beginner it's very easy to be seduced by suited cards or picture cards, or any two-card holding that contains an Ace of a King – but if you play hold'em correctly, you're going to be selective and toss away the vast majority of hands you're dealt.

When you gain more poker playing experience you can begin to open up your range of starting hands – but until then, proceed with caution and only play the best hands. Loose, promiscuous play will get you into trouble and is the downfall of many players.

In future lessons we'll expand much more on the topics discussed in this poker lesson and get you to think beyond the actual cards you're dealt. We also have hours of video footage covering starting hand selection for both no-limit and fixed-limit hold'em – so depending upon your preference, be sure to check them out!

By David Sasseman

David lives in Atlanta, Georgia, and has played over a million hands online and many thousands of hands in Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, and Las Vegas casinos.

So by now we all know which starting handsare good and which are bad, but there's still a ton of variables that should influence your decision to open a particular hand preflop..In this article we'll look at some important factors when deciding pre-flop opens:

i) Limitations of the Starting hand chart

ii) Position

iii) Limpers/Posters

iv) Stack-sizes

v) Open-raise size

Poker Starting Hands Odds Calculator

vi) Edge/Reads

Limitations of the starting hand chart

Don't take the starting hand chart as gospel!

Many beginners are encouraged to make use of a starting hands chart (SHC)when first embarking on a poker career. While this suggestion is not without merit, it is particularly important to understand where its limitations lie.

A starting hands chart is very useful as a rough guide for an absolute beginner, but your ultimate goal should be to progress away from this as soon as possible. Poker is a dynamic game; the person who can adjust the most efficiently to the strategy of another is the one who will win the chips in the long run. Playing a static strategy in such a game is going to, at the very least, confine you to mediocrity - if not cause you to become a downright losing player.

Assuming we had a SHC representative of tight-aggressive play, let's consider some of the situations where we would typically deviate from our 'standard' open-raising strategy in a 6max game.

Position

This is partially factored into most starting-hands charts. A hand like A8o should be a standard open-raise on the button in many games. A8o from UTG however, is usually going to be trash and is a standard fold.

You should also consider your position relative to other players at the table. If there are fish in the blinds you might choose to open looser from early-position, because if these players call you will have position postflop. If there are loose or aggressive players in position on you, you should often tighten up. Perhaps you are in the CO with a loose-aggressive player on the button, and as a result you should tighten up your CO opening-range.

Limpers/Posters

If there are fish who open-limp you can choose to iso-raise a lot wider when you have position. (This is not strictly an 'open'-raise but similar principles apply.) Perhaps you find yourself with a hand you wouldn't normally open raise with from a specific situation, but playing that hand in position against a fish will likely still be +EV.

A similar principle applies if there are posters involved in a hand. You can often raise a little wider seeing as the extra dead-money means you don't need to steal the pot as often for it to be profitable. Posters will be folding a lot because their range pretty much includes any 2 cards. If you've already seen them check, their range becomes any 2 cards they didn't want to raise!

Stack Sizes

This is one factor that is completely disregarded in almost all SHCs, yet is a crucial piece of information in establishing which ranges you want to open.

If we take a very simplified view of the different starting hands we can split them into two categories. Hands which benefit from implied-odds, and hands which suffer from reverse implied-odds.

Hands which benefit from implied-odds: These typically include speculative hands like 78s. These hands don't have immediate showdown-value, yet they do have some potential to make strong nutted hands a small proportion of the time. It's important that when you do make a flush/straight/straight-flush that there is enough money in villain's stack to make it profitable in the long run. In other words, if villain has a very short stack, it can quite easily become un-profitable to play a hand like 78s.

The other type of hand, is that which suffers from reverse implied-odds: These are hands with immediate showdown value like AK, or QQ. You have no problem playing these against a shortstack because a large proportion of the time you will either be committed preflop or on the flop. They suffer from reverse implied odds because as the stacks get deeper, you are less happy with stacking off with the type of hands they make, namely big one-pair hands. If your opponent seems extremely happy to get 200BB stacks in, it's likely that your AK on the K678 is no good; whereas, if villain only has a 25BB stack, it's a snap-call with TPTK.

The hands in between:

There are some hands that fall in the middle of these two categories, such as QTs. This is both a speculative hand, and a hand that makes weak-top pairs. How you choose to play it depends on the exact circumstances. Much of the time if villain is deep, you will play it as a speculative hand, while if villain is shallow you will play it as a TPGK hand.

General rule of thumb:

As a general rule you want to tighten up your open-raises when shortstacks are still left to act. As the stacks get deeper you can start opening a lot wider with all kinds of speculative hands. (Theoretically when the stacks are super-deep, perhaps 1000bb deep, you can open 27o even if you never steal preflop, because you have sufficient implied odds. In practice you'd only ever do this if you expect to have a huge post-flop edge). You should then be careful playing TPTK/Overpair as the stacks get deeper. Playing AKo 200BB deep, it is likely you will need to employ some pot-control during the hand if you make a TPTK hand. You will also be less comfortable putting yourself in a situation where you need to stack off preflop for 200BB+, even with hands like KK where it might be standard to stack off in a 100BB pot.

Open-Raise Sizing

Blackjack boats for sale in florida. You should often vary your open-raise size, depending on the players at the table and the position you are opening from.

Typically many follow a strategy where they open larger from UTG, and smaller from the Button. This is partially because your UTG open-raising range is typically stronger than your BU opening range. Your UTG open also needs to get through more players, and you perhaps discourage them from calling you in-position with a slightly larger open raise size.

This is just a generic sizing strategy however, and you should consider making deviations depending on the players at the table. Perhaps you are getting relentlessly 3bet by a certain opponent; you could choose to open-raise smaller so you lose less, make 3betting less attractive for villain, and also make it easier for you to flat-call if you were so inclined.

Or perhaps villain is a huge fish, that plays every hand, but always check-folds when he misses the flop. Why not open-raise large, perhaps 5x or 6x and take it down on the flop? Perhaps villain NEVER folds anything preflop, and you have AA, why not raise to 10x or even more?

Conversely perhaps you are UTG with a suited-connector, and you know that regardless of your raise sizing, you are likely getting called in several spots. So why not open-raise smaller?

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Edge/Reads

Opening Poker Hands Odds Genesis Open

A big factor in which ranges you choose to open also depends on any reads you have and also how big your edge is.

It's often going to be wise to discard any marginal opens if the table is very tough. Certain hands like Axs which you can potentially open UTG in some games, perhaps become standard folds in games where you are going to exploited too heavily by smart opponents with position.

Certain reads may cause you to open tighter/loser, or may also cause you to open slightly different ranges. If you know villain is a postflop calling station, you might want to tighten up your open-ranges. If you know villain will play fit-or-fold on every flop, you can sometimes loosen up quite dramatically.

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Perhaps you know villain is 3betting very wide, and then open a certain type of hand with the intention of 4bet-bluffing because it contains certain blockers. The further you can plan a hand before you've even open-raised, the more specific you can be about which ranges you want to open.

Summary

While SHC's may be useful tools from a theoretical perspective, and for the use of beginners, there are many aspects of a real poker game that are simply not taken into account, such as stack-sizes and relative position.

In general, the deeper the stack-sizes, the less useful a SHC becomes. A SHC certainly carries a little more relevance when applied to short-stacked play, purely because it is a little easier to say how close a play is to the mathematical optimum, but there are still deviations that could be made depending on who is at the table amongst other factors.

A final word